最好既財務分析就當然係同行之間貨比貨,但係1883既同行我真係唔知有邊幾間,比唔係好到,咁就唯有自己同自己逐年逐年比啦!

 終極ROE分析:

EBIT Margin x Interest Burden x Tax Burden x Total Asset Turnover x Leverage

1) EBIT Margin

EBIT Margin或者Operating Margin既式係EBIT除以Revenue。呢個Margin越高代表間公司賣既野就越賺到錢,咁就當然係越好啦!

 

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Gross Profit Margin

30.73%

31.15%

33.70%

32.83%

33.49%

30.74%

29.79%

Staff Exp to Sales

9.39%

8.86%

8.12%

7.24%

6.95%

4.94%

5.25%

EBIT Margin

16.36%

14.48%

16.23%

15.62%

16.41%

15.98%

11.51%

EBIT Margin係俾Gross Profit Margin同Staff Expense影響既,EBIT Margin咁多年黎都係keep住係14-15%,而家有16.36%,Gross Profit Margin一直都保持係30%,如果員工成本唔好急升,咁要留係10%以上我估無問題呱!不過要留意既係,2011既16.36%同2009既16.23%既意義並唔一樣,因為EBIT入面有一部分既數由澳門業務唔經過入Sales而入做稅前XXX利,所以個EBIT Margin係唔同的。

2) Interest Burden

Interest Burden 既式係Earnings Before Tax除以EBIT,越低就代表利息費用越高,唔係好野黎既,越高就好啦!

 

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Interest Income to EBIT

0.17%

0.30%

1.24%

5.36%

25.59%

0.98%

0.26%

Interest Expense to EBIT

0.19%

0.05%

0.00%

0.01%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%

Interest Burden

100.0%

100.3%

101.2%

105.3%

125.6%

101.0%

100.3%

正數代表有淨利息支出,由於1883一扭都無咩債項,所以利息支出都唔多。利息收入都越黎越唔爭氣,不過1883上年已經使哂D錢黎買澳門業務,咁我而家唔理喇!

3) Tax Burden

Tax Burden 既式係Earnings After Tax除以EBT,越低就代表稅務費用越高。

 

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Effective Tax Rate

12.51%

9.87%

16.90%

16.07%

14.26%

17.31%

16.03%

Tax Burden

87.49%

90.13%

83.10%

83.93%

85.74%

82.69%

83.97%

呢兩個數只係一個銀既兩邊,有人話過我知,如果一間公司既Effective Tax Rate高過個利得稅率,咁個CFO就炒得架喇!而家個稅率係16.5%,除左09年之外都叫合格既。

4) Total Asset Turnover

Total Asset Turnover 既式係Sales除以Average Total Asset,越高就代表公司既營運效率越高,一蚊既資產可以生產到越多既生意

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Total Asset Turnover

0.73

0.86

1.07

1.13

1.02

1.30

0.87

Adjusted Asset Turnover

1.07

1.08

1.07

1.13

1.02

1.30

0.87

本身就咁睇既話,效率真係越黎越低下,本應要打Pat Pat呀!但係其實係因為Asset個度多左好多10年收購既澳門業務,而澳門賺既又唔係入Sales而係直接入稅前盈利,咁所以我就將Interest in Associate由Total Asset度抽返出黎比較,可以見到雖然效率無咩改善,但都不至於話不斷變差。可能因為市場都飽飽地和,效率都無咩突破,轉型先係上上之策。

5) Leverage

Leverage有好多唔同既計法,有D人咁計有D人又唔係咁計,ROE個個係Average Total Asset除以Average Equity,呢個數越高就代表Average Liability越高。

 

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

Asset to Equity

1.44

1.48

1.57

1.57

1.76

2.02

1.69

咁多年黎1883都一路去槓桿,由上左市之後就係咁跌,是好是壞就見仁見志。

6) ROE

將上面所有五個數乘埋哂就會得到ROE,ROE指既係股東開頭出既錢同賺左留返係公司既錢所能賺錢既能力。咁多年黎1883既ROE不斷下跌,但呢個主要都係因為去槓桿既效果。如果以咁多年既唔同既平均股價揾到唔同既P/B,再除返個ROE,咁查實買返黎既ROE都無咩點變到。但打後就第時再討論。

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

ROE

14.9%

17.4%

22.9%

24.5%

31.6%

35.0%

14.3%

股東基本每投入一蚊就可以賺到起碼賺到一毫子以上,以前呢就ROE好高,但因為公司不斷去槓桿而下跌,再睇返上面既數字,可以相信間公司ROE既下跌並唔係因為業務變衰。